2026 Q1 China Tire Export Analysis
Key Overview
Q1 2026 China tire exports show "growing volume but falling prices" with strong resilience. The industry is in a critical transition from "low-price competition" to "global layout and high-quality development". Policy support eases pressure, but trade barriers and potential tax rebate adjustments force enterprises to accelerate overseas capacity and brand upgrading.
Market Data Highlights
Jan-Mar 2026: Total export volume reached 2.35 million tons (+5% YoY); export value rose 1.8% YoY, with average export price down 2.9% YoY. This reflects strong global demand for cost-effective Chinese tires, but price competition squeezes profit margins.
Mar 2026: Single-month export volume was 800,000 tons (-6.9% YoY), a normal fluctuation due to the Spring Festival and overseas distributor inventory adjustment. The industry fundamentals remain stable.
Policy Environment
Supportive Policies: Expanded export credit insurance coverage and cross-border trade facilitation measures (e.g., "inspect first, ship later") improve logistics efficiency and reduce credit risks, especially benefiting small and medium-sized exporters.
Tax Rebate Warning: Although the current 13% export tax rebate for tires remains unchanged, the reduction of rebates for photovoltaic and lithium battery industries signals potential risks. Enterprises should not rely on rebates; instead, shift to brand and technology-driven profitability.
Trade Barriers & Industrial Transfer
Trade Barriers: The Eurasian Economic Union extended anti-dumping duties on Chinese truck tires until November 13, 2026, making re-export trade unfeasible. Additionally, the EU is finalizing anti-dumping duties (3.4%-51.6%) on Chinese passenger and light truck tires, which will reshape the EU market pattern.
Overseas Capacity Layout: "China + Overseas" dual-base model becomes mainstream. For example, Zhongce Rubber plans to invest RMB 1.041 billion in a Vietnam plant (5 million semi-steel radial tires/year) targeting CPTPP and European markets. Vietnam has become a key hub for Chinese tire enterprises to avoid trade barriers.
Business Recommendations
Currency & Financial Tools: Use cross-border RMB settlement and forward exchange rate locking; leverage export credit insurance-based financing to ease account period pressure.
Market Diversification: Focus on ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa (accounting for 51.9% of China’s trade with the Belt and Road countries). These regions have rigid demand for TBR tires and huge infrastructure investment, suitable for cost-effective Chinese products. Africa, in particular, has become a core growth engine for Chinese tire exports.
Product Upgrading: Shift from low-end competition to high-value products (large-size high-performance PCR tires, new energy vehicle-specific tires, OTR tires) to avoid direct competition with low-cost Southeast Asian capacity.
Compliance & Risk Prevention: Prepare for EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) by conducting product carbon footprint verification and establishing ESG compliance systems to maintain EU market access qualification.
